Can UKIP and the Green party win in the North East?

The forthcoming general election has been described as one of the most unpredictable in generations.

And with the polls revealing Labour and the Conservatives to be neck-and-neck, the result could depend on how well the so-called minor parties perform.

For some time now this has largely meant UKIP which has enjoyed a level of success in the North.

Now it also means the Green party which has seen its membership surge of late reportedly to a higher level than that of UKIP.

So will either of them manage to win seats here or perhaps gain sufficient votes to affect the final outcome?

Political expert Dr Martin Farr of Newcastle University said Labour was most at threat from the rise of UKIP while the Greens posed a threat particularly to the Lib Dems.

Dr Farr also said the support in the North East had given UKIP a certain amount of credibility.

“Before it had been portrayed as the party of disgruntled Tories, the anti-immigration party.

“But the North East is Labour’s heartland and immigration isn’t as big an issue here as it is, say, in the North West.

“The issue here is about representation which many former Labour voters don’t think they are getting from the party.

“Meanwhile UKIP can say what it likes at the moment as it is a party untarnished by being in Government.

“What it is offering is what Labour used to offer – clarity and certainty.”

This could explain why UKIP has enjoyed notable electoral successes up here recently.

At present it has a North East MEP, Jonathan Arnott, and four local councillors, two in South Tyneside and two in Hartlepool.

 

At the 2013 South Shields by-election following David Miliband’s resignation, UKIP’s Richard Elvin came second to Labour’s Emma Lewell Buck winning 24% of the vote, with the Tories and Lib Dems a distant thrid and fourth.

And, if the UK didn’t have a first past the post electoral system, it could have many more representatives.

In the May 2014 local elections at Newcastle City Council, having never contested a ward before, UKIP put up candidates in 19 and nine came second in the vote.

Its overall share of the vote was 9,231 or 13.5%, ahead of the Conservatives although trailing Labour and the Lib Dems.

Meanwhile at Sunderland City Council, UKIP put up five candidates in 2012 and although none won, it got some notable numbers in Hetton in particular with 1,363 where their candidate came a close second.

In 2014 it was unlucky not to win any seats despite gaining 16,951 votes in total, a 24.3% share. Of the 23 wards it contested it came 2nd in 16 of them.

Even as we approach the general election it is still making inroads. Last month the Mayor of Bishop Auckland, Coun Colin Race, quit the Labour Party and joined UKIP.

As for the Greens, Dr Farr said:

“There has been a huge surge in support because the Lib Dem support has collapsed and they are also attracting people from the left of Labour who are fed up with austerity.

“There isn’t a Syriza type party (the left wing anti-austerity party in Greece which formed the last Government there) in the UK.

“The Green party is basically still a pressure group without fully formed policies on all the issues. It’s leader was embarrassed recently in a TV interview because of this.”

However he said in time, using the success it has had at local level in places like Brighton, it could achieve credibility at a national level.

This might mean any electoral success it enjoys in the region by be more limited than UKIP which, in the public’s eye, is a bit more of an established party.

Overall Dr Farr said he wasn’t expecting many surprises at the May general election.

He said: “I think in most of the North East, the majorities are such that the numbers they attract won’t be enough to win seats.”

Source – Newcastle Evening Chronicle, 07 Feb 2015

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